Polls remain neck-and-neck just two days before Sweden’s elections, with the right bloc narrowly in the lead. Here’s a breakdown of the most recent polling figures.
Sweden’s parliament, the Riksdag. Photo: Tim Aro/TT
Social Democrats
Still comfortably in the lead as Sweden’s largest party, the Social Democrats are on 29 percent of the vote in Wednesday’s SVT/Novus poll, an increase of 0.7 percent since 2018. This would give them 102 seats in parliament, two more than they currently hold.
This is a slight increase on Wednesday’s figures, where the Social Democrats were on 27.8 percent of the vote.
Sweden Democrats
After taking over from the Moderates as Sweden’s second-largest party in polls at the end of August, the Sweden Democrats are holding on to their lead and polled at 21 percent on Thursday, an increase of 3.5 percent since 2018. This would give them 74 seats in parliament if they receive the same amount of votes on Sunday, an increase of 12 since 2018.
This is a slight increase since Wednesday, where they were polling at 20.6 percent.
Moderates
Now at risk of becoming Sweden’s third-largest party after the election, the Moderates are polling at 18 percent, a drop of 1.8 percent since the 2018 election. This result would give them 64 seats in parliament, six fewer than they won in 2018.
On Wednesday, they were polling at 17.3 percent.
Centre
The Centre Party was polling at 7.5 percent of the vote in the most recent poll on Thursday, a drop of 1.1 percent since 2018. If it was to win this share of the vote on Sunday, its number of seats would drop by four, leaving it with 27.
This is a decrease from Wednesday’s figures, where it was polling at 8.6 percent.
Left
The Left Party is polling slightly lower than in 2018 – 7.4 percent of the vote. With this vote share it would lose two seats in parliament, leaving it with 26.
The Left was polling at 8 percent on Wednesday.
Christian Democrats
The Christian Democrats are polling at a similar level to last election: 5.8 percent, a decrease of 0.5 percent since 2018. This would give them two fewer seats in parliament, giving them a total of 20 seats.
This is a decrease from Wednesday’s figures, where the Christian Democrats were polling at 5.9 percent.
Greens
The Greens were at one point in the danger zone for winning under 4 percent of the vote and dropping out of parliament, although it appears now that they could be safe. They are polling at 5.2 percent with a margin of error of 0.8 percent, meaning they would be unlikely to receive less than 4.6 percent of the vote if the election were to be held today.
The Greens were polling at 5.7 percent on Wednesday.
If the Greens received 5.2 percent of the vote on Sunday this would be an increase of 0.8 percent since 2018, giving them an extra two seats, putting them on a total of 18.
Liberals
The Liberals also look like they may be safe. They are polling at 5.1 percent and have a margin of error of 0.8 percent, meaning the lower limit of their vote share is likely to be 4.3, just over the parliamentary threshold.
This is an increase since Wednesday, where they were polling at 4.8 percent and were at risk of dropping out of parliament.
If they were to win 5.1 percent of the vote, this would be a decrease of 0.4 percent since 2018. They would also lose two seats in parliament, putting them on a total of 18.
Left bloc
Although there are margins of error for each party and for each bloc as a whole meaning the vote could still go either way, the most recent polls put the left bloc (Social Democrats, Centre, Left and Greens) on 49.1 percent of the vote, an decrease of 0.2 percent since 2018. This would lower the government’s current one-seat majority by just two seats to 173 of parliament’s 349 seats.
On Wednesday, the left bloc were on 50.1 percent of the vote, which would win them 177 seats.
Right bloc
Again, the margins between the blocs are so tight that either side could still win. With that in mind, the most recent poll puts the right bloc (Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats and Liberals) on 49.9 percent of the vote, an increase of 0.8 percent since 2018. This would give the opposition 176 seats, two more than their current 174 seats.
On Wednesday, this bloc was on 48.6 percent of the vote, which would give them 172 seats, two fewer than they currently hold.
How do the margins of error affect this?
The margins of error, which vary for each party, mean that the results in this poll are correct with 95 percent accuracy, plus or minus the margin of error.
This means, using the Social Democrats as an example, with their 1.6 percent margin of error, that there is a 95 percent chance that the Social Democrats would receive between 27.4 percent of the vote and 30.6 percent of the vote, if the election were to be held on the same day as the poll.
The margins of error for each party on Thursday were as follows:
Social Democrats: 1.6 percent
Sweden Democrats: 1.5 percent
Moderates: 1.4 percent
Centre: 1 percent
Left: 0.9 percent
Christian Democrats: 0.8 percent
Greens: 0.8 percent
Liberals: 0.8 percent
New polling information is released daily around 3pm.
