“The whole person-over-policy is only exacerbated in the Trump era,” he said, predicting campaigns across the country in 2022 and 2024 in which “we’re going to see a resurgence of personality-based candidates.”
The current election cycle has already provided a glimpse of what’s to come. Cotton, the 43-year-old Republican from Arkansas, drew national attention for his controversial op-ed in The New York Times calling for the deployment of U.S. troops to stop riots following the death of George Floyd.
In Colorado, Lauren Boebert, a restaurateur and gun-rights activist, defeated Rep. Scott Tipton, who had Trump’s endorsement. She is one of a growing class of Republican candidates who have expressed at least some support for QAnon, the conspiracy theory about deep state forces in conflict with Trump. At least two of them, Boebert and Georgia’s Marjorie Taylor Greene, are favored to win House seats in November.
The Republican Party after Trump — whether that’s in 2021 or 2025 — will still have familiar Republican heavyweights like Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Nikki Haley. But it is difficult to know what flavor of Republican candidate will sell — a looming uncertainty that is in large part a function of Trump, a politician who has not yoked his political fortunes to ideology in the way that previous presidents have.
“The thing that I think is interesting about [Trump] is that his brand and the defense of his brand goes beyond a party platform or a set of principles,” said Brett Doster, a Florida-based Republican strategist who served as the state’s executive director for the Bush-Cheney 2004 presidential reelection campaign. “When we do get beyond Trump … the question is, ‘What is the Republican Party?’ I don’t know that anyone’s really looked at the platform beyond Trump’s Twitter account for the last four years.”
He said, “For the last four years, it’s been easy for people to say, ‘Are you for Trump or are you not for Trump,’ and that litmus test is not going to be there” when Trump is gone, whether that happens next year or four years later.