Hopes for the Singapore summit between the U.S. and North Korea are running high after U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed Friday the historic meeting is back on for June 12.
His announcement came after meeting with North Korean General Kim Yong-chul who hand-delivered a letter from Kim Jong-un.
Analysts said the roles of South Korean President Moon Jae-in and Chinese President Xi Jinping, from this point, will be critical to ensure success for the summit.
They believe the U.S. and North Korea have agreed on denuclearization in principle but the two sides have yet to fully trust each other as they have different views of what denuclearization means.
James Bindenagel, a Henry Kissinger professor for Governance and International Security at Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms University in Bonn, Germany, said the key task for Moon is to help build trust between Trump and Kim.
“President Moon, in his role as mediator, takes on the risk of being led astray by Kim Jong-un, while needing to ensure there is no light between Moon and Trump,” Bindenagel told The Korea Times.
“The talks at the Kim-Trump summit have not found common ground between hints at denuclearization and threats of annihilation.”
The career U.S. diplomat called for Moon to help them build trust and move the parties beyond threats.
Joseph DeTrani, a former U.S. special envoy for the six-party talks with North Korea, said Moon’s role has been and will continue to be critical to ensuring a peaceful resolution to issues with North Korea.
“Moon has established a good relationship with Kim, which will help ensure the U.S.-North Korea summit takes place, as planned or at a later date,” he said.
Regarding the second summit between Moon and Kim, he said, “This is very positive. Moon deserves recognition for his efforts to bring peace to the Korean Peninsula.”
William Brown, an adjunct professor at Georgetown School of Foreign Service, said Moon is playing his role very well, keeping Kim in touch with what Trump is thinking.
“I’m still skeptical that Kim is prepared for complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization (CVID) but at least he is still talking about denuclearization, probably in vague terms,” he said.
“Moon can continue to hold out promise to the North that it can succeed by coming to terms with the U.S., but absent that, and a return to nuclear development, the North’s economy will continue to fail with large implications for the stability of the regime.”
DeTrani said Chinese President Xi should play a certain role in influencing Kim to be more sincere about denuclearization.
“Xi Jinping will be instrumental in getting Chairman Kim to understand that denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is important for all countries,” DeTrani said.
He added that Xi should convince Kim that North Korea “will benefit greatly, with economic development assistance and security assurances and other deliverables, by committing to the comprehensive dismantlement of their nuclear weapons and nuclear weapons programs.”
Brown, a former U.S. intelligence officer, said it is important to recognize Kim is more desperate for the summit.
“It’s clear both sides want the summit, but Kim probably needs it more than Trump. My sense is that China, and its near-trade embargo, has a lot to do with it,” he said.
“There is no way the country can absorb for long the kind of hit currently being delivered by China’s near embargo.”
From Brown’s perspective, the trick is for both the U.S. and the North to provide the other an immediate gain with negotiations set up for extended further negotiations on the difficult topics.
“An example of a plus for the U.S. would be closure of North Korea’s plutonium and highly enriched uranium facilities, something never achieved by the Obama or Bush administrations,” the former U.S. intelligence officer said.
“A plus for Kim would be reciprocal openings of tourist or other diplomatic posts in each capital, indicating a path toward elimination of hostile relations.”
