With hopes running high for possible dialogue between the United States and North Korea, the upcoming South Korea-U.S. military exercise is drawing keen attention.
Military officials do not rule out the possibility of the North carrying out fresh provocations to protest the annual Ulchi Freedom Guardian (UFG) drill that starts Monday.
Pyongyang customarily reacts with anger and military threats to such joint military exercises, which it says are a rehearsal for invading the North.
The Ministry of National Defense told a National Assembly session Monday, “There is a great possibility that North Korea will carry out strategic or tactical provocations to protest the latest U.N. sanctions and the UFG exercise.”
The exercise this time comes amid high military tension following an exchange of bellicose rhetoric between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un last week. Kim threatened to strike areas near Guam with four intermediate-range ballistic missiles, while Trump claimed the U.S. military was “locked and loaded” to deal with the North’s provocations.
But hopes for a breakthrough have been cautiously raised after Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping agreed to a peaceful resolution of North Korean issues during a telephone conversation Saturday.
Since then, U.S. politicians and defense officials have increasingly mentioned the need to resolve issues through diplomatic and economic pressure rather than military actions.
The North’s young leader also said Monday that he would watch Washington’s behavior “a little more” before making any decisions, according to the state-controlled Korea Central News Agency (KCNA), Tuesday.
Kim, however, added if the U.S. continues its “extremely dangerous reckless actions” on the peninsula, his regime will make an “important decision as it has already declared.” Kim called on the U.S. to “make a proper option first and show it through actions to defuse tension and prevent a dangerous military conflict.”
The “dangerous reckless actions” were construed as referring to the UFG exercise, in which U.S. strategic assets such as B-1B heavy bombers and nuclear-powered submarines are likely to participate.
The defense ministry said Seoul has been in talks with Washington on the dispatch of the strategic weapons as well as additional joint exercises in preparation for the North’s possible provocations.
Experts say the Kim regime could use the dispatch of the assets as an excuse for missile tests.
“The KCNA report did not explain concretely, but Kim’s comments would mean that he expects the U.S to stop hawkish remarks against the North and decrease the frequency of sending its strategic assets here,” Kim Yong-hyun, a professor of North Korea studies at Dongguk University, said.
China’s state-run Global Times claimed Tuesday that Seoul and Washington should stop their scheduled joint exercise if they want real peace in the region.
But the U.S. top general, who visited South Korea earlier this week, made it clear that there will be no change to the planned UFG drill.
“I would say you have to look at the rhetoric of North Korea. The exercises are more important than ever,” U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford said during a press meeting here, Monday. “These exercises are in developing our operability, developing our readiness and forces here in Korean Peninsula in case the deterrence fails.”
U.S. Forces Korea Commander Gen. Vincent Brooks, who accompanied Gen. Durford, also said, “Our exercises are projected well in advanced. We have been consistent from year to year, they are not a surprise, and we remain in readiness as these exercises are very important to us.”
When asked about what the U.S. armed forces would do if North Korean attacked Guam, Gen. Durford avoided a direct answer, only saying, “Our job is to make sure our leadership has an option available to them.”