In the end, it didn’t take long. Just over six months after President Trump assumed office, the Washington establishment has, in the short to medium term at least, ended any hope of improved Russian-American relations. A humiliated Trump has been forced to publicly admonish his legislature for leaving him no option but to approve new coercive measures against Russia.
It wasn’t supposed to be like this. On election night, Trump promised to have “great relations” with everyone. And that followed a campaign where he intimated he’d remove Obama’s, comparatively feeble, anti-Russia penalties. Now, not only has he been forced to codify them, but he’s also signed into law far stricter embargoes. Rarely, if ever, has an occupant of the Oval Office been so openly paralyzed by lawmakers and the deep state.
The latest US sanctions targeting Russia’s oil and gas sector will cause Gazprom some headaches in building the new gas pipeline to Germany, experts say. However, US restrictions are unlikely to stop.
Viewed from afar
Meanwhile, in Moscow, there is incredulity, bafflement, and bewilderment as to how Russia ended up as public enemy number one again. And astonishment at the political civil war which has gripped its old Cold War rival, as the established order unites to delegitimize the outsider who succeeded in winning the White House.
Things boiled over on Wednesday evening when the Russian Prime Minister took to Facebook to chide Trump as “impotent.” A clearly angry Dmitry Medvedev writing how “the hope of improving our relationship with the new American administration is over,” adding the sanctions amounted to “a full-fledged economic war on Russia.” Medvedev held little back as he noted a change in “the balance of power in US political circles” with representatives dictating to the president in matters of foreign policy.
Medvedev’s invective seemed to confirm that the Kremlin will respond forcibly to the new measures. And Moscow has plenty of retaliatory options.
One favored by some opinion formers in the Russian capital is the idea of reducing diplomatic cooperation with the Americans to the bare minimum. After all, they say, if relations can’t be normalized, what is the point of both sides keeping hundreds of officials at their respective embassies? Such a proposal would see Russia pare back its staff levels in Washington to a few dozen essential personnel and force the US to operate within the same constraints at their locations here. A move like this would have significant repercussions for cross-cultural exchanges, visa issuing and, notably, espionage. But in a climate where even speaking to Russians is toxic in US politics, the Kremlin may feel it has little to lose.
Another possible rejoinder is the prospect of canceling fertilizer exports to the US agriculture industry. That could damage Russian producers, who probably wouldn’t be able to divert all the excess to China. The same goes for notions of restricting uranium supplies where Russia is responsible for about twenty percent of American nuclear power plant needs. Here, Rosatomhas previously said it wouldn’t countenance halting supplies based on “long-term contracts subject to strict implementation.”
Star Trek
There is one area where the Kremlin can markedly damage Washington’s interests, without much economic pain. And that’s in the realm of space. Because since the shuttle Atlantis staged its last flight, in 2011, NASA has been entirely reliant on Soyuz launchers to reach the cosmos. Should Putin decide to cancel agreements where Americans hitch a ride on Russian-led trips, for the first time in decades, US astronauts will be completely earth bound.
Also, the cost to Russia wouldn’t be much. At $80 million a seat, dropping Americans from the flights won’t break the bank. Plus, to make matters worse for the US, Boeing, which is developing its own proposed rival to Soyuz, is reliant on Russian rocket engines. But the implications for the International Space Station might rule this reprisal out.
Source:rt.com